The ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has become a critical issue for U.S. President Joe Biden, shaping the political landscape ahead of the upcoming American elections. Analysts suggest that the war has placed Biden in a “lose-lose game,” as he struggles to balance the interests of his party’s diverse voter base and the powerful corporate and political lobbies that influence U.S. elections.
A Divided Voter Base
Biden’s Democratic Party relies on a coalition of middle-class Americans, young voters, Latinos, African Americans, Arab Americans, Jews, and Muslims. While a significant portion of these voters sympathizes with Palestine, the U.S. corporate sector, which wields immense power in election outcomes, maintains deep ties with Israel and its economy. Several major American corporations are contractually linked with Israeli firms, creating mutual dependencies in raw materials, machinery, and marketing networks.
Additionally, the U.S. is home to several influential Jewish lobbying groups. Evangelical Christians, who are predominantly Republican supporters, have historically backed Israel and Zionism. Despite making up only 2% of the U.S. population, Jewish voters exert considerable influence in American elections due to their organizational strength and strategic political alliances.
Conversely, Arab voters—both Muslim and Christian—hold decisive sway in at least three U.S. states. Furthermore, a significant number of African Americans, Latinos, young voters, left-wing activists, and Asian communities sympathize with the Palestinian cause. Their collective influence in the upcoming election is expected to be crucial.
Biden’s Balancing Act
President Biden faces significant political pressure while confronting former President Donald Trump, who remains a strong contender despite legal troubles. Biden’s administration has struggled to maintain a consistent stance on the Gaza conflict, often appearing to waver between support for Israel and acknowledging the humanitarian crisis in Palestine.
The U.S. initially vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire, bowing to pressure from pro-Israel groups. However, Biden later criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reluctance to de-escalate the war. Despite this, the Biden administration continued its unwavering military support for Israel, including approving $38 billion in military aid and supplying advanced weaponry.
Adding to the complexity, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Israel’s Netzah Yehuda Battalion for human rights violations in the West Bank, provoking outrage among Zionist groups. Biden even hinted at altering U.S. policy if Israel failed to protect civilians in Gaza. Yet, despite over 36,000 civilian deaths—including more than 18,000 children—the administration’s stance remained largely unchanged.
Political and Electoral Fallout
In an attempt to appease Arab voters, Biden secretly met with Arab leaders and sought forgiveness for his administration’s policies. During one such meeting, Palestinian-American human rights activist Rami Nashashibi confronted Biden, asking, “Mr. President, do you realize how cruel and ironic it sounds when you question the death toll?” This moment encapsulated the growing frustration among pro-Palestinian voters.
Biden’s predicament is clear: taking a firm stance for either Israel or Palestine risks alienating a significant portion of his voter base. Losing support from any of these groups could cost him the election. The only viable solution would be brokering a mutually acceptable ceasefire. However, Israel’s internal politics have made this nearly impossible.
Israel’s Internal Political Struggles
Currently, Israel is governed by its most right-wing coalition in history. Hardline ministers in Netanyahu’s war cabinet have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if a ceasefire is accepted, which could force early elections. Given Netanyahu’s declining popularity and ongoing corruption cases, a new election could lead to his political downfall—and potentially even imprisonment.
Moreover, Netanyahu faces a war crimes investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC), adding further pressure. The Israeli government, therefore, remains hesitant to end the war, fearing both domestic political instability and international legal repercussions.
A Deepening Global Crisis
Biden recently proposed a three-phase ceasefire plan, presenting it as an Israeli initiative. However, Netanyahu quickly dismissed any halt to military operations until Hamas is eradicated. This has led Hamas to view the ceasefire proposal as a trap rather than a genuine effort at peace.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to escalate, with thousands of civilians—including women, children, and the elderly—falling victim to relentless Israeli bombardments. Disturbing images and videos documenting war crimes are circulating online, creating widespread international outrage.
The ICC has already initiated legal proceedings, with its chief prosecutor requesting arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leaders. Western governments, including several European nations, have begun recognizing Palestine as a sovereign state, further isolating Israel diplomatically. Public opinion in the U.S. is also shifting, with support for Israel dropping below 50% for the first time in history.
Long-Term Implications for Israel
Despite Israel’s historical geopolitical advantages, many Israelis are now questioning whether the mass killing of Palestinian civilians is truly serving their nation’s interests. Images of Palestinian suffering are leaving an indelible mark on global consciousness, fueling growing resentment against Israel and its supporters. Some analysts warn that these atrocities could eventually be used against Israel in future geopolitical shifts.
Thus, Biden and Netanyahu are not only orchestrating a war that is devastating innocent Palestinians but also sowing the seeds for long-term instability in the Middle East. The war is putting Jewish communities in the region at heightened risk while further eroding Israel’s global standing.
As the U.S. election approaches, Biden remains trapped between two powerful yet opposing forces. His inability to take decisive action has exposed the fragility of U.S. foreign policy and left his re-election prospects uncertain. Without a genuine and lasting resolution to the Gaza conflict, the Biden administration risks alienating key voters—potentially paving the way for a political upset in November.
