Executive Summary
Bangladesh’s interim government has signaled conditional support for a United Nations–backed humanitarian corridor through its territory to deliver aid to famine-stricken communities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State (The Irrawaddy, 30 April 2025). With Rakhine facing “famine conditions by mid-2025” and over two million people at risk of starvation (Al Jazeera, 8 November 2024), the corridor offers an opportunity to save lives, bolster humanitarian aid flows, and strengthen Bangladesh’s diplomatic leverage on Rohingya repatriation. However, domestic political fragmentation, limited economic and military capacity, and persistent misinformation campaigns threaten both the feasibility and strategic benefits of the initiative. This brief outlines key considerations and recommends a calibrated, multi-stakeholder policy approach to maximize gains and minimize risks.
Background
Situation of Rakhine (Arakan)
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Famine-risk: A November 2024 UNDP report warned that, by March–April 2025, domestic food production in Rakhine will cover only 20 percent of needs, putting over two million people at risk of starvation (UNDP, 7 November 2024, Al Jazeera, 8 November 2024).
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Territorial control: Approximately 90 percent of Rakhine State is controlled by the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed organization, creating de facto blockade conditions and disrupting agriculture and trade (The Daily Star,14 March 2025).
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Forced displacement: Conflict and food shortages have driven hundreds of thousands of Rohingya and other civilians toward Bangladesh, exacerbating humanitarian and security pressures at the border (Reuters, 8 November 2024).
UN-Proposed Corridor
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Guterres’ visit: During Ramadan 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres toured Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar and called for a humanitarian corridor through Bangladesh to reach starving populations in Rakhine (The Daily Star 13 March 2025; Dhaka Tribune 15 March 2025).
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Interim government stance: On April 30, 2025, Bangladesh’s interim government publicly indicated its willingness, “in principle,” to facilitate a UN aid corridor, pending Security Council approval and clear operational conditions. However, the government of Bangladesh has didn’t disclose the detail of their conditions (The Irrawaddy 30 April 2025; Myanmar Now, 30 April 2025).
Analysis of Policy Considerations
Strategic Benefits
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Life-saving relief: Direct delivery of food, medicine, and essential supplies could avert mass famine and reduce cross-border refugee flows (UNDP, 7 November 2024).
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Diplomatic leverage: Bangladesh can leverage the corridor negotiations to secure stronger international commitment to Rohingya repatriation and development assistance (Burma Campaign UK, 17 December 2024).
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Global standing: Playing a constructive humanitarian role may enhance Bangladesh’s profile in multilateral forums, including the UN and ASEAN (Eurasia Review, 24 March 2025).
Operational and Political Challenges
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Domestic disunity: Polarized political discourse and widespread disinformation and misinformation on social media undermine consensus and could stall decision-making (Prothomalo, 10 March 2025).
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Capacity constraints: Bangladesh’s economic and military resources are stretched by existing refugee hosting; additional logistical and security demands pose significant burdens. So, international support is a must (Reuters, 8 November 2024).
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International approval: The corridor requires UN Security Council authorization and the tacit consent of military and non-state actors in Myanmar, a high bar given competing interests of China, India, and Russia (The Guardian, 7 November 2024).
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Misinformation threats: External actors may exploit disinformation campaigns to erode public support or justify unilateral interventions (BenarNews, 14 March 2025).
Policy Recommendations
1. Strengthen National Consensus
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National Dialogue: Convene an inclusive forum of political parties, security experts, civil society, and media to craft a unified narrative and combat misinformation.
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Security Council: Establish a National Security Council or such kinds of mechanism to oversee corridor negotiations, ensuring transparent communication and rapid response to emerging challenges.
2. Establish Clear Operational Conditions
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Legal Framework: Draft a conditional agreement stipulating that Bangladesh’s role is limited to transit and logistics, with security in the Bangladeshi segment guaranteed by the Bangladesh Armed Forces and in the Rakhine segment by UN peacekeepers.
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Resource Mobilization: Negotiate upfront commitments from the UN and donor nations for funding, equipment, and training to mitigate capacity gaps.
3. Leverage Diplomatic Channels
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UN Security Council: Actively lobby permanent members, emphasizing the corridor’s humanitarian imperative and Bangladesh’s constructive approach.
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Regional Partnerships: Engage India, China, and ASEAN states to secure parallel support, reducing risks of great-power rivalry.
4. Public Engagement and Information Integrity
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Strategic Communications: Launch a government-backed campaign to provide factual updates, counter false narratives, and highlight cross-party endorsements.
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Media Partnership: Collaborate with reputable media outlets and fact-checking networks to identify and debunk disinformation swiftly.
Conclusion
A UN-backed humanitarian corridor to Rakhine presents Bangladesh with a critical opportunity to save lives, attenuate refugee pressures, and elevate its diplomatic standing. However, domestic unity, capacity reinforcement, and robust international approvals are essential. By implementing an inclusive policy framework—anchored in clear legal conditions, resource mobilization, diplomatic outreach, and strategic communications—Bangladesh can maximize the corridor’s benefits while safeguarding national interests and stability.
